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Lobby Biz Ideas topic #6988

Subject: "Thor8217s Hammer- A First Look at Noah S" Previous topic | Next topic
jackkyFri Sep-01-17 02:02 AM
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"Thor8217s Hammer- A First Look at Noah S"


Dillon Geewill mi s at least the next couple of weekswith a torn groin, however the Mets arent likely to suffer an exce sive amount of in the absence. Thats because they have uber-prospectNoah Syndergaardin the fold,who will part of and replaceGee within the rotation. Syndergaard, 22, will make his major-league debuttonightagainst the Cubs and figures to carry down an area in the Mets rotation for the near future. And when you think the Steamer projections, Syndergaard could po sibly supply the Mets with a sizableupgrade over Gee.
Before his contact, Syndergaard was one of the very best pitching prospects within the minors. He placed 19th in our preseason top-200 list and it was easilythe highest rated prospect around the Mets. Other outlets gave him evenhigher praise, withBaseball Prospectus,MLB.comandBaseball Americaranking him 9th, 10th and 11th, respectively.
Given his stuff, its not hard to determine why he rated so highly. Syndergaard includes a sizzling fastball that sits within the mid-to-high 90s. He complements it having a curveball and changeup that are both average pitches at this time, based on Kiley McDaniel, who anticipates both ticking up to above-average (55) soon.
Unsurprisingly, Syndergaard checks all the boxes statistically, too. My KATOH system, which considers his 2014 stats, absolutely adored the 6-foot-5 righty heading into the year . His projection of11.5WAR through age-28 was the6th highest a sociated with a prospect. He ranked second among pitchers, trailing onlyJulio Urias.
Before I dive into Syndergaards numbers, Im first going to notethe need for context. If youre looking over this article, you probablyalready realize that a players league and home ballpark lead to shaping his numbers; but I feel itsworth reiterating since Syndergaards recent performance has been heavily influencedby his surroundings.
Both this season and last, Syndergaards pitched in the Pacific Coast League, which happens to be an environment thats extremely ideal for scoring runs. The PCL averaged 5.03 runs per game in 2014, compared to 4.07 within the majors.The PCLs league-wide strikeout and walk rates arent much different than the ones youll find in the majors or perhaps in other minor league levels last years marks of 20% and 9%, respectively, have to do with average for affiliiated baseball.However, the PCL generates more homers than every other league, and itsleague-average BABIP trails only theRookie-level Pioneer League. These phenomena conspire tomake the PCL probably the most hitter-friendly(and pitcher-unfriendly) leagues in any minors.
As if the PCL wasnt enough for Syndergaard to cope with, hes also had the misfortune of pitching for the Vegas 51s, who play half of their gamesin the bandbox known as Cashman Field.The Las Vegas 51s scored a whopping 6.11 runs per game in 2014 andhave plated 6.45 this season both tops within the PCL. Even in a hitter-friendly league, Vegas stands that beats all others when it comes to run scoring, and this is due in no small part towards the teams home ballpark.
With all of that in your mind, lets take a look Syndergaards Triple-A performance, which represents his system of labor in the last 13 months. In 32starts between this season and last, hes pitched to some 4.32ERA with Triple-A Las Vegas. While that numberlooks prettymediocre in nominal terms, itsactuallyfairly solid when held against last years league average of 4.64. Furthermore, his performance is downright goodwhen you focus on his 3.68 FIP.The culprit for his ERA-FIPdifferential? An inflated .361 BABIP, which is likely due in part to the high BABIPine s from the PCL. Aside from that BABIP, theres not much to dislike about Syndergaards Triple-A performance. Its probably reliable advice his 3.68 FIP may be the better representation of his true talent.
Lets obtain a a bit more granular. Syndergaards strikeout rate, walk rate and home-run rate have all been much better than the PCL average, but itsthe strikeoutsthat stand out most. His 25% strikeout ratefrom 2014 was third-highest in Triple-A this past year. Hesfollowed it up by whiffing a level-leading 30% of battersfaced in his five 2015 starts. Based on my KATOH research, strikeouts tend to be strong predictors of future succe s for pitchers, so Syndergaards ability to mi s Triple-A batscertainly bodes well for his futurein the large leagues.
Syndergaardsexcellent strikeout numbers havent merely been a recent phenomenon, either. He also struck out more than his great amount of batters in Double-A (32% K%), High-A (25%), Low-A (29%) as well as short-season ball (26%). Hes been striking guys out since he would be a 17-year-old fresh out of senior high school,so his exceptional Triple-A strikeout numbers are no single-season fluke.
Syndergaards strikeouts are his most exciting feature from a statistical perspective, but theres more to him than his whiffs. While slightly le s predictive of big-league succe s, his walk numbers are also encouraging. A 7% walk rates are nothing to sneeze at, particularly when paired with strikeout numbers asgood as Syndergaards. Which skill set is even more impre sive from a pitcher whos still just 22.
Unsurprisingly, pitchers who have had minor league records much like Syndergaards have experienced enough succe s in the big leagues.Using hisleague-adjusted stats between this season and last, along with his age, I calculated theMahalanobis distancebetween Syndergaards performance, and every Triple-Aseason since 1991 in which a pitcher faced a minimum of 350 batters. Below, youll find the historical players who were nearest and dearest to Syndergaardby this technique, ranked from most to least similar.
PitcherIP thru 28WAR thru 28WAR as a RookieMatt Garza1,02716.10.6Jason Windsor130.00.0Ryan Madson5165.91.3Tyler Skaggs*1811.70.0Jason Hammel7328.00.6Juan Pena130.70.7Ted Lilly6287.90.8Rodrigo Lopez5397.13.0Travis Miller2632.30.0Sonny Gray*3326.01.5Jon Niese*92812.32.3Frank Rodriguez6544.70.7Drew Pomeranz*2372.11.3Jason Young290.00.0Heath Murray1460.00.0Sean Dougla s2070.00.0Chris Tillman*7125.80.0Glendon Rusch1,03314.31.3Jeff Niemann5065.92.9Kyle Gibson*2662.10.0*Pitchers who've yet to experience their age-28 seasons.
Virtually all 20 of these guys continued to po se s some sort of big-league career, and many of these turned into good, reliable pitchers. When they never quite achieved ace status, Matt Garza, Glendon Rusch and even Jon Nieseput together solid careers. And most importantly, they did so afterachieving results similar to Syndergaards from his year-plus in Triple-A. We also visit a few others, like Jason Hammel, Rodrigo Lopez and even Jeff Niemann, who provided moderate levels of value within the big-league portion of their careers. Several of these pitchers hadimmediatebig-league impacts. Seven from the twenty earned more than 1.0 WAR within their rookie campaigns.
Considering the high attrition rate of pitching prospects, this list of comps looks pretty darn encouraging for Syndergaard. Its even more encouraging when you take into account that it doesnt even account for Syndergaards unfavorable Triple-A ballpark (although it does adjust for league), which certainly serves to underrate his performance in terms of BABIP and home runs allowed.
Pretty much in whatever way you slice it, Syndergaards future looks bright. His 6-5 frame and ideal stuff are sufficient to get scouts on board, and he has got the minor-league history to back up his physical gifts. Plus, according to his utter dominance in his five Triple-A starts this year hes pitched to a 1.82 ERA having a 30% strikeout rate he looks more than prepared to contribute right now. Steamer anticipates a 3.50 ERA for Syndergaard for the remainder of the season, which is abetter forecast than every Mets starter not named Matt Harvey. According to his minor-league performance, Syndergaard will almost certainly a sist the Mets in 2015; and barring injury, he stands a good chance of holding down an area within their rotation for years to come.


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rainahuangWed Nov-08-17 12:31 AM
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#1. "RE: Thor8217s Hammer- A First Look at Noah S"
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